Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Why bother playing? Grading the fanatasy football draft

So after feeling particularly horrible about my fantasy football draft last night, having scored the super sweet 14th pick in the swing position, I decided I should really take a look overall at how that horrible team I had pieced together stacked up. I began to think about a way to grade everyone’s draft, but outside of using my entirely unprofessional opinion, a way to do it mathematically, and give what I rate some credence.

A few magical seconds later I came up with this method: Using the Yahoo! projections, (which is based off of Rotowire) take every starter’s projected year end fantasy points position for a team, each divided by 16 for the games played, and add them up. This figure should represent an average points scored per week for that team. At the end of it all, I would have a rank of power per team, theoretically breaking down that team’s performance for any given week. A few players did not have kickers, so I gave them an average overall kicker score. Well, let’s just say this got interesting.

My horrible draft turned out not so bad after all. Only five of us crafted a 100+ point team, with my hot Cooley Wives coming in 5th. My co-worker Greg gets the top spot with 104.04, and poor old Scott didn’t make it to 90, with 89.65. #1 overall pick holder Mr. Ford gets a 96.52 good for 9th place.

So naturally, it was time to turn this to our Dynasty league. This took a slight bit more prognostication, and some players had not set their starters yet. I used the best number per position on a team, so if Drew Brees was a 350.00 and Tom Brady a 400.00, I put Brady in the QB slot. This league also has one more starting position than the regular league, and only 10 teams, so point totals were significantly higher.

Well there you have it. The rich got richer. Last year’s champ Swampy Drunk Donkeys of Fordy score a motherfucking 134.50. That is 17.86 points higher than runner-up Dave at 116.64. Poor Howie appears not to have improved his chances much on finishing ahead of dead last again, with a score of 105.53 good for last. Myself, well I felt pretty good about my chances this year, now… well, who wants to trade me some free agency money and draft picks?

Another interesting item is Newman dropping from 3rd to 8th. Obviously intangibles like bench spots are not a factor here, as Newman’s “3 Great QBs” scheme does not equal points on the starter bench in this algorithm, where last year it proved strong when injuries and trades came up.

All told, this paints an interesting picture for the year to come, I think it is a fair guess at how everyone will finish, if you subtract manager skill, and give or take the free agent gems and injuries … not to mention those who fall asleep after week 6.

Can’t wait to come back in December and see how this draft score/projection worked out.


Slick said...

Wait... How the hell did I miss fantasy football this year?

Sheeoot, I must have gotten one email from JJ and brushed it aside at the time and told myself, "Meh, he'll send 4 or 5 more reminders..."